U.S. National Security Forecast: The Next Four Years

The election is over.  President Obama’s administration will be in charge of national security policy for the next four years.  The product of this tenure will have long lasting consequences for American security, for good or for ill.

The next issue of the National Strategy Forum Review presents a comprehensive and succinct overview of what lies ahead for the next four years—trends, options, and consequences.  It is our forecast of the major issues and challenges that will shape U.S. national security discussion in 2013 and beyond.  Articles in this issue include:

• Defining National Security Strategy: The components of national security strategy, likely and unforeseen global events and their consequences.

• National Security Principles from 2010 to 2012 and Beyond: Past, present, and future—the need to adapt to changed circumstances.

• The Politics of National Security in the 113^th Congress: How domestic politics affects national security strategy and policy.

• Averting the Fiscal Cliff: Necessary But Not Sufficient: Economics as the dominant component of national security and implications of the fiscal cliff and beyond.

• The Threat Array: Knowns and Unknowns: Given that there are many unknown emerging threats, it may be prudent to develop national resilience rather than to counter every known threat to U.S. national security.

• Military Policy in a Time of Fiscal Retrenchment: The U.S. military is in a state of flux as a result of the Afghan and Iraq wars. U.S. military resources and doctrine must adapt to asymmetry, terrorism, insurgency, and a constrained defense budget.

• Homeland Security: Protecting the Critical Infrastructure: As a result of Hurricane Sandy, protection of the national critical infrastructure is gaining visibility.

• U.S. Foreign Policy: Challenges, Opportunities, and Organizing Principles: Traditional foreign policy is adapting to changed circumstance, and will require reevaluating methodology to meet emerging international challenges.

• Pivot to Asia: Calculus and Consequences: The American destiny may lie more with countries in the Asia-Pacific than with traditional Western European orientation.  What are the consequences and how can this shift be managed?

• Flashpoint Mediterranean: Middle Eastern conflicts are continuing and are unresolved.  There is a Mediterranean connection that should be explored, resulting in potential amelioration of the conflict.  The realistic goal is political stability rather than peace.

• The National Security Benefit of Good Neighbors – Canada And Mexico: America’s backyard is composed of Canada, Mexico, and Latin America.  These states are expanding their economic and political stability.  Although the U.S. has not been an exceptionally good neighbor, there is opportunity for the U.S. to initiate actions that could result in an enhanced relationship.

• Proactive Asymmetry: To counter ongoing terrorist threats, the U.S. needs to “think small”—an asymmetric, proactive offensive doctrine.

• Management of National Security: Strategy and national security require fundamental management change within government agencies.

The National Strategy Forum mission is to assist our members to become more informed about U.S. national security issues through our lecture series, conferences, and publications.  It is our hope that this new issue of the National Strategy Forum Review proves useful to you.

National Security Forecast: The Next Four Years can be read online at the link here.

Pritzker Military Library | Ties that Bind

In commemoration of the bicentennial of the War of 1812, the National Strategy Forum hosted a panel discussion of the Ambassadors of the U.S. and Canada, and Rear Admirals from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Coast Guard, and the Royal Canadian Navy.  The broadcast, produced by the Pritzker Military Library in Chicago, and sponsored by the Canadian Consulate in Chicago, addresses the historical evolution of the US-Canada relationship following the War of 1812, and the contemporary security cooperation between the U.S. and Canada on the Great Lakes and internationally.

The link to the video is below:

Pritzker Military Library | Ties that Bind

U.S.-Canada Arctic Strategy

Strategic cooperation in the Arctic is an important issue for U.S.-Canada relations.  The region is a vital source of natural ocean resources and global transportation, one that is often contentious for the complicated international interests in its strategic potential.  Managing these contentious issues is the subject of a new, excellent report by the Center of Strategic and International Studies, A New Security Architecture for the Arctic.

The National Strategy Forum Review published an issue dedicated to the U.S.-Canada relationship in the Summer of 2010.  The publication covers a number of U.S.-Canada security issues, but two articles in particular addressed the Arctic.  To read this issue, visit Canada: The Other Special Relationship.

The U.S.-Canada National Security Relationship

Canada and the U.S. operate in a rapid and continuously changing threat environment ­– acts of terrorism, economics and finance, natural disasters, pandemics, and catastrophic terrorism.  National security involves all of these events supplemented by notions of history, culture, and tradition, public diplomacy, and military concerns.  Although Canada’s population is substantially smaller than the U.S., Canada is a full partner of the U.S.  After a recent visit to Colorado Springs to visit the U.S.-Canada Tri-Command at Peterson AFB and Cheyenne Mountain, Richard Friedman shares his insights into this important security relationship.  To read the article, click on the link below.

The U.S.-Canada National Security Relationship

By Richard E. Friedman

Beyond the Border: A Shared Vision for Perimeter Security and Economic Competitiveness

The following is a declaration by the Prime Minister of Canada and the President of the United States of America.  The official release can be found at: www.pm.gc.ca.  Separate statements on trade, energy, and border security are also available.

4 February 2011

Ottawa, Ontario and Washington, D.C.

Canada and the United States are staunch allies, vital economic partners, and steadfast friends. We share common values, deep links among our citizens, and deeply rooted ties. The extensive mobility of people, goods, capital, and information between our two countries has helped ensure that our societies remain open, democratic, and prosperous.

To preserve and extend the benefits our close relationship has helped bring to Canadians and Americans alike, we intend to pursue a perimeter approach to security, working together within, at, and away from the borders of our two countries to enhance our security and accelerate the legitimate flow of people, goods, and services between our two countries. We intend to do so in partnership, and in ways that support economic competitiveness, job creation, and prosperity.

The Canadian Exemplar: Partnering with the U.S. to Secure North America

NSF Event Announcement: February 1, 2011 at the Union League Club of Chicago

The U.S. needs  friends and allies.  Canada, our friend next door, is flourishing while operating under the American public’s radar: it manages its political and economic issues with skill, and keeps its people safe.  In many ways, this is the reason that few Americans pay attention to Canada.  A sound national strategy is both the reason for Canada’s low visibility and the key to its success.  Canada and the U.S. have many things in common, but the comparisons worth focusing on are the ones that provide positive lessons that can be applied to America’s current problems.  What can the U.S. learn from Canada’s experience?  And in what ways are the U.S. and Canada working together to produce a prosperous and secure North America?  There are at least four reasons why Americans should start to pay attention.

Securing the U.S.-Canada Border

According to a Wall Street Journal news update (12-20-2010), “Canada, U.S. Near Security Accord,” Canada and the U.S. are making great strides towards improving border security.  The details of a new immigration and border security pact are set to be unveiled over the next few weeks.  The details of the security framework will have broad implications for the U.S.-Canada relationship.

In the Summer 2010 National Strategy Forum Review, Susan Ginsburg analyzed the status of U.S.-Canada border security and provided a detailed assessment of how the challenges can be overcome.  Ms. Ginsburg’s article, Securing Human Mobility at the U.S.-Canada Border, offered a six-fold strategy to secure the border.  These measures include: 1) regular joint threat and risk assessments; 2) deeper mutual assistance; 3) a transatlantic privacy and data-protection framework; 4) a one-stop border pre-clearance  system; 5) aligned admission standards; and 6) integrated surveillance and security operations in the border zone.

As the U.S. and Canada unveil the border security deal, Ms. Ginsburg’s strategy offers a good point of reference for analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the new proposal.  Will the upcoming strategy make the U.S. and Canada more secure?

Ms. Ginsburg’s new book, Securing Human Mobility in the Age of Risk, has been very well received by security analysts.  The book is available for purchase at the Brookings Institute.