Archive for the ‘Europe’ Category

U.S. National Security Forecast: The Next Four Years

December 12, 2012

The election is over.  President Obama’s administration will be in charge of national security policy for the next four years.  The product of this tenure will have long lasting consequences for American security, for good or for ill.

The next issue of the National Strategy Forum Review presents a comprehensive and succinct overview of what lies ahead for the next four years—trends, options, and consequences.  It is our forecast of the major issues and challenges that will shape U.S. national security discussion in 2013 and beyond.  Articles in this issue include:

  • The Threat Array: Knowns and Unknowns: Given that there are many unknown emerging threats, it may be prudent to develop national resilience rather than to counter every known threat to U.S. national security.
  • Military Policy in a Time of Fiscal Retrenchment: The U.S. military is in a state of flux as a result of the Afghan and Iraq wars. U.S. military resources and doctrine must adapt to asymmetry, terrorism, insurgency, and a constrained defense budget.
  • Pivot to Asia: Calculus and Consequences: The American destiny may lie more with countries in the Asia-Pacific than with traditional Western European orientation.  What are the consequences and how can this shift be managed?
  • Flashpoint Mediterranean: Middle Eastern conflicts are continuing and are unresolved.  There is a Mediterranean connection that should be explored, resulting in potential amelioration of the conflict.  The realistic goal is political stability rather than peace.
  • The National Security Benefit of Good Neighbors – Canada And Mexico: America’s backyard is composed of Canada, Mexico, and Latin America.  These states are expanding their economic and political stability.  Although the U.S. has not been an exceptionally good neighbor, there is opportunity for the U.S. to initiate actions that could result in an enhanced relationship.
  • Proactive Asymmetry: To counter ongoing terrorist threats, the U.S. needs to “think small”—an asymmetric, proactive offensive doctrine.

The National Strategy Forum mission is to assist our members to become more informed about U.S. national security issues through our lecture series, conferences, and publications.  It is our hope that this new issue of the National Strategy Forum Review proves useful to you.

National Security Forecast: The Next Four Years can be read online at the link here.

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Iran in the Crosshairs

September 28, 2012

 

Iran in the Crosshairs: International Elements of Non-Proliferation Policy

President Obama’s speech at the UN on September 25 amplified the urgent need to confront Iran’s nuclear program.  In an effort to project American strength on the issue, President Obama made the following statement:

“A nuclear-armed Iran … would threaten the elimination of Israel, the security of Gulf nations, and the stability of the global economy.  It risks triggering a nuclear-arms race in the region, and the unraveling of the non-proliferation treaty.  That’s why a coalition of countries is holding the Iranian government accountable.  And that’s why the United States will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

Iran’s rapid development of fissile nuclear material is a complex issue.  The transition from conventional contemporary weapons to nuclear weapons has grave implications for the existence of the State of Israel; the potential for nuclear proliferation, including possession of a nuclear weapon by terrorist organizations; a severe oil shortage; and the degradation of the global ecosystem.

Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon is a manifestation of nuclear proliferation.  It tells us that the concept of an effective international non-proliferation regime is a marvelous idea that, based on the statements of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has not prevented Iran from moving rapidly toward a nuclear capability.  What is complicating the process?  How can the international community change course? (more…)

The Role of Cyprus

July 6, 2012

“On July 1, one of the EU’s smallest states and most recent members — the Republic of Cyprus — assumed the six month presidency of the E.U.  With a U.S. Presidential election upon us, it is hard to fathom how a country with a population of under one million can be relevant for the rest of 2012.  Make no mistake about it: Cyprus’ turn at the helm of the E.U. will be as consequential as any presidency worldwide for the rest of 2012…” (Huffington Post)

Read Endy Zeminides’ latest piece, “Cyprus: Small Country, Big Presidency,” on the Huffington Post.

Endy Zemenides is a member of the National Strategy Forum Review Editorial Board.

Is There a Europe to be Saved?

June 28, 2012

With the European summit on June 28-29, all eyes are on this meeting as the leaders address their region’s deteriorating economic crisis.  Can the European Union be saved?  Is there even a sense of European community to save?

Endy Zemenides, a National Strategy Forum Review Editorial Board member, discusses the problem of solidarity among the European states and why the lack of solidarity is impeding a quick solution to the economic crisis.  The ability for Europe to solidify around a common cause will have broad repercussions for U.S. national security.

Read Is There a Europe to be Saved? by Endy Zemenides at the Huffington Post.

 

 

Evaluation of the 2012 Chicago NATO Summit

June 25, 2012

New Publication Now Online: Evaluation of the 2012 Chicago NATO Summit

The 2012 Chicago NATO Summit was a significant event for the City of Chicago, the U.S., and for the Transatlantic Alliance.  On the agenda were a number of important issues affecting global security and the future of the transatlantic relationship.  Some of these were addressed substantively, others were glossed over.  In both cases, the implications of the Summit have profound effects on international relations and U.S. national security.

This special issue of the National Strategy Forum Review (NSFR) evaluates the 2012 Chicago NATO Summit on the basis of what was on the agenda, what agreements and policies were produced during the Summit, and what the consequences of these policies will be in the future.  NATO affiliates and NSFR Editorial Board Members have evaluated these criteria in the first section, titled “Evaluation of the 2012 Chicago NATO Summit.”  For the past several years, the National Strategy Forum has developed a close working relationship with the Northwestern Medill School of Journalism National Security Journalism Initiative that is funded, in part, by generous assistance from the McCormick Foundation.  In the second section, titled “Key Issues for NATO,” advanced graduate school journalism students from Medill were assigned to do first-hand interviews with NATO participants and stakeholders, and have provided reports on many of the complex issues facing NATO after the Summit.

Looking back on the May summit, much was accomplished, but there were opportunities that were missed and there are several negative implications for the future.  The articles herein provide the reader with the playbook for analyzing these issues and arriving at their own conclusions.

 To access this new NSFR Special Edition, please visit the link here.

Webcast Discussion: Anti-NATO and Pro-NATO Perspectives on the 2012 Chicago NATO Summit

May 18, 2012

The May 17, 2012 discussion between the anti-NATO and pro-NATO perspectives during the Chicago NATO 2012 Summit weekend was held at the Pritzker Military Library in downtown Chicago.  The live webcast is now archived at the YouTube link below.  The theme for the webcast was “Social Responsibility and National Security: Towards a New NATO”.

Chicago, the 2012 G8 and NATO Summits, and U.S. National Security

May 9, 2012

This special edition of the National Strategy Forum Review (NSFR) addresses the local, national, and international implications of the 2012 NATO Summit in Chicago.  The confluence of these three parts creates the rationale for this combined issue of the NSFR.  The articles herein are a guidebook to the global relevance of the G8 and NATO Summits in May 2012, and to the ramifications of these events to Chicago and U.S. security in the future.

The publication has three interrelated parts:

On the local level, the City of Chicago has prepared to implement a security and marketing campaign for a secure and successful Summit.  Chicago hopes to leverage this historic event into tangible benefits for the City.  Meanwhile, Chicago is also addressing many other local security strategy issues the affect the long-term prosperity of the City.  These include financial deficits, deteriorating infrastructure, business flight, and physical security concerns.  The combination of the new Emanuel administration and the opportunities afforded by the NATO Summit have coalesced at a propitious time to reevaluate Chicago’s multifaceted strategy for its future.  The articles in the “Chicago’s Security Strategy” section ask this question: What is the City’s long-term strategy for prospering as a Global City?

On the national level, the G8 and NATO Summits have created discussion regarding the viability and relevance of these institutions.  Occupy Wall Street, the Coalition Against NATO and G8, and other movements have raised concerns about these organizations’ roles in global affairs.  Public vetting of these voices is an important part of the democratic process.  At the same time, some of the issues raised – including the financial, foreign policy, and social justice concerns – relate directly to U.S. national security.  The articles in the “Social Justice, NATO, and International Security” section ask: Why are NATO and the G8 relevant (or perhaps irrelevant) to U.S. national security?

On the international level, the G8 and NATO organizations are pillars of the global architecture.  They help to form the backbone of international economics, global security, and humanitarian aid.  Yet much of what these organizations do remain unclear to the public sector.  The articles in “The G8 and NATO Summits” section ask: What are the major issues facing these organizations at their respective events in May?

The Winter-Spring 2012 Special Edition is now available online at the link here.  The entire issue is also available as a PDF download at the link here.

The 2012 G8 and NATO Summits

March 22, 2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

In May 2012, leaders of the Group of 8 (G8) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries are descending on Camp David and Chicago respectively to discuss pressing issues of global governance and international security. These meetings will have broad policy effects on their respective fields. To prepare for the following summit meetings, the National Strategy Forum Review is providing a background briefing  on these two organizations to discuss their institutional histories and contemporary relevance to global governance.

What are the institutional histories of these institutions?  Why are they relevant and important to global affairs?  What issues will be discussed during these summits?  To read the article, click on the link below.

Briefing: The 2012 G8 and NATO Summits

By Eric S. Morse 

Breeding Grounds for Terrorism and Transnational Crime

July 19, 2011

As the U.S. is withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Department of Defense and Pentagon are cutting excess programs, security analysts are faced with the challenge of doing more with less.  How can the U.S. best use its resources, military, and intelligence tools to focus in on the major threats to U.S. national security?

Fine tuning what too look for and where to look for it is key to this process.  A team of analysts at Syracuse University’s Global Black Spots—Mapping Global Insecurity Project (GBS-MGI) is developing a new research methodology that goes beyond the traditional state level analysis to find “Black Spots,” or areas of insecurity that are beyond government control.  The team probes the local-level characteristics of a region using open source information to determine where terrorism and transnational crime may develop in the future.  Their findings provide a map of global insecurity that is being applied by U.S. intelligence agencies.

The Summer 2011 issue of the National Strategy Forum Review shares this process with our readers.  The case studies below are a sample of the estimated 600+ Black Spots operating around the globe.  This unique research demonstrates that traditional security analysis must add a deeper, more local component to the search for future security threats.

(more…)

EU Economic Crisis & US National Security

May 21, 2010

The theme for the first NSFR  blog is “The EU Economic Crisis and the Effects on U.S. National Security.”  Posted below are three articles that address this theme from different perspectives.  First, the NSF Insider article provides an overview of the EU economic crisis and its three major effects on U.S. national security.  Second, Dr. Alex Papadopoulos describes how the economic problems in Greece may cause a reshuffling of NATO priorities.  Third, Andrew Cottey summarizes the impact of the economic crisis on Ireland and its national security spending.

NSF Insider: EU Economic Crisis
By Eric S. Morse

A Strategic Silver Lining in the Greek Economic Crisis?  An Opportunity for a Systemic Security Shift in NATO’s Flank
By Dr. Alex G. Papadopoulos

Odd PIG Out: Ireland and the Economic Crisis
By Andrew Cottey